The Role of Climate Change in Reshaping Motorsport: Wet Tyres, Track Adaptation and Red Flags

In recent years, the impact of climate change on motorsport has become increasingly evident. With unpredictable weather patterns disrupting racing calendars and affecting race-day strategies, the sport is undergoing a structural transformation. From the growing reliance on wet-weather tyres to the modification of tracks and the surge in red flag incidents, climate-related shifts are reshaping the competitive landscape of Formula 1 and other racing series.

Rise in Wet Races Over the Past Three Years

Statistical data from the FIA reveals a notable surge in wet or semi-wet Grand Prix events since 2022. Between 2022 and mid-2025, over 40% of Formula 1 races experienced moderate to heavy rain either during qualifying or the race itself. This marks a 15–20% increase compared to the 2010s, when wet races occurred sporadically and were often considered anomalies. The frequency is even higher in Asian and European races during spring and autumn seasons.

Aside from Formula 1, similar trends have been observed in WEC (World Endurance Championship) and MotoGP. In 2024 alone, the Le Mans 24 Hours was suspended twice due to rain, while the Dutch MotoGP round was red-flagged following persistent thunderstorms. These conditions test not only driver skill but also vehicle reliability, pit crew coordination and safety protocols.

This increase has influenced the allocation of wet and intermediate tyre compounds by suppliers like Pirelli. Teams must now approach race weekends with flexible strategies, prioritising grip and drainage capabilities under the assumption that rain could affect any session, regardless of local forecasts.

How the FIA Has Responded to Changing Weather

The FIA has acknowledged the growing instability of weather conditions and responded with updated regulations to enhance driver safety and race management. Since 2023, new guidelines require track promoters to ensure drainage systems and water runoff areas meet higher standards, particularly on circuits frequently affected by rain. The goal is to minimise aquaplaning and reduce the chance of uncontrolled skids.

Moreover, the FIA introduced a new directive in 2024 allowing race control greater flexibility in issuing rolling starts under wet conditions. This measure intends to reduce red flag delays and maintain race continuity where possible. In tandem, safety car procedures have been revised, granting stewards greater autonomy in weather-assessment decisions without waiting for unanimous team approval.

Finally, efforts are being made to research and develop more efficient wet-weather tyres, including experimental compounds designed to displace water more effectively without relying on excessive tread depth, which previously led to overheating issues once the track began to dry.

Track Design and Adaptation to Climate Risks

With rainfall patterns becoming more erratic, circuit designers and local authorities are investing in resilient infrastructure. New circuits built post-2023 are required to feature elevated banking, improved gradient systems and multiple drainage exits in corner complexes. These adaptations are evident in the newly opened Madrid F1 street circuit and the revised Fuji Speedway layout in Japan.

Older tracks such as Spa-Francorchamps and Silverstone have also undergone upgrades. Spa, infamous for its dangerous Eau Rouge section, added additional gravel runoff zones and replaced outdated drainage grates with rapid-absorption materials. These modifications follow recommendations from the FIA’s environmental resilience programme, which evaluates venues based on climate risk exposure.

In parallel, simulator training modules have integrated dynamic wet-weather models more intensively. Drivers must now prepare for rapidly changing grip levels within a single lap, particularly in low-visibility situations where standing water may suddenly appear on specific sectors of the track.

Race Strategy Under Variable Weather

The growing unpredictability of rain has forced teams to rethink not only tyre selections but also fuel loads, ERS (energy recovery system) deployment and overcut/undercut possibilities. Wet weather reduces braking zones and cornering speed, extending tyre life but increasing the risk of time-losing mistakes.

Teams like Mercedes and Red Bull have restructured their simulation departments to account for more frequent “mixed condition” races. These are sessions that begin dry and turn wet or vice versa—scenarios that demand swift pitwall decisions and accurate radar interpretation. One misjudged call can cost a podium.

Radio communication has also evolved: real-time meteorological updates are now more detailed, often including satellite overlays, microburst forecasts, and surface temperature deviation alerts. Drivers are encouraged to share feedback on grip levels continuously, with engineers adjusting strategy models lap-by-lap.

Increase in Red Flags and Betting Implications

The frequency of red flag incidents has nearly doubled since 2022. According to FIA race director data, the 2024 season saw 11 red flags due to extreme weather, compared to just five in 2021. These interruptions complicate race strategy, increase vehicle cooling challenges and often require restarts under revised grid conditions.

This surge has significant implications for betting markets. Rain-affected races are notably more unpredictable, leading to volatile odds and unexpected outcomes. Underdogs such as Alpine, Haas, or even Williams have secured points finishes or led laps during mixed conditions, offering high-value bets for experienced punters.

Bookmakers have responded by narrowing the odds margins for mid-tier teams in rainy forecasts and offering conditional wagers based on weather-triggered variables (e.g., “driver to lead under SC conditions” or “race to end under red flag”). As climate volatility increases, the intersection between motorsport and betting markets is becoming a game of meteorological intelligence as much as driver performance.

Safety and Regulatory Forecasts

Looking forward, the FIA is considering further reforms. These include implementing artificial drying systems on certain tracks and developing AI-assisted weather prediction tools to inform marshals and teams more accurately. Such tools would allow for improved decision-making in marginal weather conditions.

Additionally, mandatory weather simulation training may become a requirement for Super Licence holders. This would ensure that drivers can handle hydroplaning, limited visibility, and aquaplaning recovery scenarios without relying solely on instinct or prior experience.

Finally, the FIA is expected to release its first Climate Impact & Resilience Report for motorsport in late 2025. This document will serve as a blueprint for integrating environmental sustainability with competitive integrity, bridging the gap between racing tradition and climate adaptation.